Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 0.160839 0.191137 0.226939 0.272740 0.330315 0.401015 0.495518
2025-06-22 0.119798 0.154692 0.200439 0.266034 0.359750 0.492141 0.699570
2025-06-29 0.089150 0.122938 0.171106 0.247090 0.368455 0.563276 0.918968
2025-07-06 0.060525 0.087388 0.128029 0.196770 0.316202 0.528117 0.966912
2025-07-13 0.049169 0.074705 0.116008 0.191727 0.337142 0.629145 1.341107
2025-07-20 0.041878 0.066825 0.109895 0.195493 0.377880 0.796620 2.028556
2025-07-27 0.036561 0.061113 0.106240 0.203371 0.433518 1.043304 3.267858
2025-08-03 0.031847 0.055484 0.101458 0.208016 0.487616 1.343375 5.286645
2025-08-10 0.027173 0.048981 0.093443 0.203203 0.518216 1.619120 8.017987
2025-08-17 0.023007 0.042662 0.084356 0.193002 0.530476 1.862829 11.614882
2025-08-24 0.020320 0.038843 0.079856 0.193305 0.578774 2.337200 19.675861
2025-08-31 0.018126 0.035649 0.076052 0.194446 0.634219 2.966442 35.428711
2025-09-07 0.016248 0.032955 0.073225 0.199074 0.717118 4.016872 78.092502
2025-09-14 0.014601 0.030477 0.070372 0.202996 0.807542 5.479387 195.673100
2025-09-21 0.012804 0.027311 0.064945 0.196205 0.845432 6.756115 446.947015
2025-09-28 0.010389 0.022261 0.053273 0.162568 0.712963 5.914325 457.610538
2025-10-05 0.009399 0.020582 0.050745 0.162440 0.776002 7.765149 1483.437043
2025-10-12 0.008724 0.019575 0.049928 0.168930 0.893929 11.370777 10596.085918
2025-10-19 0.008194 0.018848 0.049788 0.178590 1.056800 17.860104 473567.458434
2025-10-26 0.007645 0.017973 0.048981 0.185254 1.217651 27.534439 NaN
2025-11-02 0.006992 0.016702 0.046579 0.183313 1.306940 37.714868 NaN
2025-11-09 0.006328 0.015297 0.043408 0.176102 1.337901 47.314158 NaN
2025-11-16 0.005889 0.014468 0.042043 0.177896 1.479252 71.380117 NaN